冷战是什么时候开始的？

本文为2014年度国家社会科学基金重大项目“总体国家安全观下的中国东南周边地区安全机制构建研究”(项目编号：14ZDA087)的阶段性成果。感谢华中师范大学韦红教授对于本文的指导，感谢《国际政治科学》编辑部及匿名审稿专家对本文提出的极具建设性的修改意见，文中错漏由笔者个人负责。

Harbom Lotta and Peter Wallensteem, “Armed Conflict and Its International Dimensions，1946—2004，”Journal of Peace Research, Vol.42, No.5, 2005, p．623; The Correlates of War Project, “Cow War Data, 1816—2007 (v4.0)，” http：//www.correlatesofwar.org/data-sets/COW-war，访问时间：2017年2月21日。

此处所指超级大国介入代理人战争是以战争始于某个时点为准，这是出于分析代理人战争爆发的动因的需要。

Yaacov Bar-Siman-Tov, “The Strategy of War by Proxy，”Cooperation and Conflict, Vol.19, No.4, 1984, pp.263-273.

Andrew Mumford, “Proxy Warfare and the Future of Conflict，”The RUSI Journal, Vol.158, No.2, 2013, pp.40-46.

Thomas J．Bellows, “Proxy War in Indochina: Implementation of a New Communist Strategy，”Asian Perspective, Vol.3, No.2, 1979, pp.142-161.

Philip Towle, “The Strategy of War by Proxy，”The RUSI Journal, Vol.126, No.4, 1981, pp.21-26.

Rajvir Singh,War and Peace in the Nuclear Age(New Delhi: Intellectual Publishing House, 1987)．

Alex Marshall, “From Civil War to Proxy War: Past History and Current Dilemmas，”Small Wars & Insuegencies, Vol.27, No.2, 2016, pp.183-195.

Piero Gleijeses, “Moscow's Proxy? Cuba and Africa 1975—1988，”The Journal of Cold War Studies, Vol.8, No.2, 2006, pp.98-146; Piero Gleijeses,Conflicting Missions: Havana, Washington, and Africa，1959—1976(Chapel Hills: University of North Carolina Press, 2002)．

Nadav Safran,Saudi Arabia: The Ceaseless Quest for Security(Cambridge, Massachusetts: The Balknap Press of Harvard University Press, 1988)．

Allan.R.Millett, “The Korean War: A 50-Year Critical Historiography，”The Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol.24, No.1, 2001, pp.188-224.

Yaacov Bar-Siman-Tov, “Patron-Client Relations: Israel, the Superpower, and the War in the Middle East，”Journal of Palestine Studies, Vol.18, No.2, 1989, pp.136-138.

Chris Loveman, “Assessing the Phenomenon of Proxy Intervention，”Conflict, Security and Development, Vol.2, No.3, 2002, pp.29-48.

Filip Bryhka, “North and South Yemen as a Theatre of a Proxy War during the Cold War，”Journal of Science of the Military Acadamy of Land Forces, Vol.48, No.2, 2016, pp.19-34.

Janice Gross Stein, “Proxy Wars—How Superpowers end Them: The Diplomacy of War Termination in the Middle East，”International Journal, Vol.35, No.3, 1980, pp.478-519.

Gregory D．Stone, “Proxy War: A Critical Examination of Superpower Indirect Conflict in Africa，” A Thesis Submitted to the Faculty of Graduate Studies in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Arts, 2010.

Alex de Wall, “War Trap，”Index on Censorship, Vol.28, No.5, 1999, pp.92-99.

卡列维·霍尔斯蒂(Kalevi J．Holsti)指出，战争研究者得出一个共识，即单一原因的解释无论是在理论上还是在经验上都是不充分的。卡列维·霍尔斯蒂：《和平与战争：1648—1989年的武装冲突与国际秩序》，王浦劬等译，北京大学出版社，2005年，第3页。

Evan Luard,The Blunted Sword: The Erosion of Military Power in the Modern World(London: I．B Tauris & Coltd, 1988), pp.57-59.

Hedley Bull,The Anarchical Society(New York: Columbia University Press, 1977), p．184.

David Singer and Melvin Small,The Wages of War, 1816—1965: A Statistical Handbook(New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1972), p．45.

The Correlates of War Project, “The Cow Typology of War: Defining and Categorizing Wars(Version 4 of the Data) by Meredith Reid Sarkees，” p．1, http：//cow.dss.ucdavis.edu/data-sets/COW-war/the-cow-typology-of-war-defining-and-categorizing-wars/view，访问时间：2017年2月21日。

Karl.W.Deutsch, “External Involvement in International Wars，” in Harry Eckstein ed.,Internal War: Problems and Approaches(New York: Free Press of Glencoe, 1964), p．102.

Yaacov Bar-Siman-Tov, “The Strategy of War by Proxy，”Cooperation and Conflict, Vol.19, No.4, 1984, p．263.

Geraint Hughes,My Enemy's Enemy: Proxy Warfare in International Politics(Eastbourne: Sussex Academic Press, 2012), p．11.

Bertil Dunér, “Proxy Intervention in Civil Wars，”Journal of Peace Research, Vol.18, No.4, 1981, p．356.

Chris Loveman, “Assessing the Phenomenon of Proxy Intervention，”Conflict, Security and Development, Vol.2, No.3, 2002, p．30.

 列表中的每一场代理人战争均有着深刻与复杂的国内矛盾与国际动因，这里选取其最主要的矛盾方面进行操作，这符合“奥卡姆剃刀”的简约原则。

Charles W．Osron and Francis W．Hoole, “Alliance and War Revisited: A Research Note，”International Studies Quarterly, Vol.22, No.2, 1978, pp.215-236; Jack S. Levy, “Alliance Formation and War Behavior: An Analysis of the Great Powers，1495—1975，”Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.25, No.4, 1981, pp.581-613.

Raymond Tanter, “Dimensions of Conflict Behavior Within and Between Nations，”Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.10, No.1, 1966, pp.41-64; Jonathan Wilkenfeld, “Domestic and Foreign Conflict Behavior of Nations，”Journal of Peace Research, Vol.6, 1969, pp.148-156; Raymond Tanter, “Dimensions of Conflict Behavior within and between Nations，1958—1960，”Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.10, No.1, 1966, pp.41-64; Michael Haas, “Social Change and National Aggressiveness, 1900—1960，” in David Singer ed.,Quantitative International Politics(New York: Free Press, 1968), pp.215-245; Jonathan Wilkenfeld, “Domestic and Foreign Conflict Behavior of Nations，”Journal of Peace Research, Vol.5, No.1, 1968, pp.59-69.

需要指出的是，超级大国没有介入并不等同于超级大国没有插手这些战争，只是这些战争没有体现出明显的超级大国代理化的特征。

Thomas Pedersen, “Cooperative Hegemony: Power, Ideas and Institutions in Regional Integration，”Review of International Studies, Vol.28, No.4, 2002, pp.677-696.

超级大国均认识到，在地缘政治游戏中，小国的作用不容忽视，如果把它们的力量加在一起，就会对大国的整个资源基础产生重要影响。戴尔·科普兰：《大战的起源》，黄福武译，北京大学出版社，2008年，第264页。

在中苏承认北越政权后，美国决定大力支持法国在印支政策，因为面临急迫危机的印度支那在东南亚有着重要战略地位。George C．Herring,America's Congest War: The United States and Vietnam, 1950—1975(New York: McGraw-Hill, Inc, 1986), pp.3-14.

刘金质：《冷战史》(中)，北京：世界知识出版社，2003年，第925页。

辛华编译：《苏联共产党第二十五次代表大会主要文件汇编》，上海：生活·读书·新知三联书店，1977年，第14页。

事实上，苏联借助军事手段向第三世界扩张本身就是其经济实力不足的体现与补充，尤其是与美国的经济实力相比，在鼎盛时期苏联的国民收入也不过是美国的64%。在这个意义上，笃信军事工具效用的苏联采取的是扬长避短战术，即充分发挥军事工具的政治作用。

Melvyn P．Leffler, “Inside Enemy Archives: The Cold War Reopened，”Foreign Affairs, Vol.75, 1996, pp.120-135.

Andrew Mumford, “Proxy Warfare and the Future of Conflict，”The RUSI Journal, Vol.158, No.2, 2013, p．42.

Robert D．English, “Power, Ideas, and New Evidence on the Cold War's End: A Reply to Brooks and Wohlforth，”International Security，Vol.26, No.4, 2002, pp.93-111.

据统计，在冷战期间爆发的所有战争中，有42%是由交错在一起的意识形态问题所引发的。卡列维·霍尔斯蒂：《和平与战争：1648—1989年的武装冲突与国际秩序》，王浦劬等译，北京大学出版社，2005年，第314页。

U.S.Government Printing Office,Public Papers of the Presidents, J．F.Kennedy, 1961, Washington, 1962, p．397.

“三和一少”是指和平共处、和平竞赛、和平过渡以及少援助民族解放运动。

王绳祖主编：《国际关系史》(第十卷)，北京：世界知识出版社，1996年，第23页。

顾志红：《苏联对第三世界政策的反思与调整》，《苏联东欧问题》1991年第4期，第21页。

Odd Arne Westad,The Global Cold War: Third World Interventions and the Making of Our Time(Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2005), p．165.

David Holden and Richard Johns,The House of Saud(New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1981), pp.501-502.

美苏两国在进行代理人战争时，存在着意识形态目标与权力目标的冲突，对于何者更为优先的争论一直都有。比如美国很多时候接近“友好的专制暴君”，即那些非民主但铁杆反共及支持美国冷战事业的独裁者或威权主义政权。参见Daniel Pipes and Adam Garginkel,Friendly Tyrants: An American Dilemma(New York: St.Martin's Press, 1991)。

一些第三世界国家和地区的领导人往往把西方资本主义发展道路同帝国主义殖民统治联系起来，对这种发展模式有着本能的反感，希望采取别的发展模式。参见张小明：《冷战及其遗产》，上海人民出版社，1998年，第227页。

Idean Salehyan,Rebels without Borders: State Boundaries, Transnational Opposition, and Civil Conflict, Doctoral Dissertation, 2006, Department of Political Science, University of California, San Diego; Patrick Regan,Civil War and Foreign Power(Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, 2000)．

张小明：《冷战及其遗产》，上海人民出版社，1998年，第230页。

Patrick. M. Reagan, “Choosing to Intervene: Outside Interventions in Internal Conflicts，”Journal of Politics, Vol.60, No.3, 1998, pp.754-759.

Morten Boas and Kevin C．Dunn, eds.,African Guerrillas: Raging against the Machine(London: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2007), p．16.

N.Choucri and R．C.North,Nations in Conflict: National Growth and International Violence(San Francisco: Freeman, 1975)．

Peter Vanneman and Martin James, “Soviet Intervention in the Horn of Africa: Intention and Implications，”Africa Institute Bulletin, Vol.16, No.7-8, 1978, pp.256-260.

Walter Lafeber,America, Russia and the Cold War, 1945—1992(New York: McGraw-Hill, 1993), p．41.

刘金质：《冷战史》(中)，北京：世界知识出版社，2003年，第589页。

Richard Smoke,National Security and the Nuclear Dilemma(New York: Random House, 1987), p．126.

Richard Ned Lebow and Thomas Risse-Kappen,International Relations and the End of the Cold War(New York: Columbia University Press, 1995), pp.57-84; Raimo Vayrnen ed.,The Waning of Major War: Theories and Debates(London: Routledge, 2005), pp.113-132.

John Lewis Gaddis,The Long Peace: Inquiries into the History of the Cold War(New York: Oxford University Press, 1987)．

Lyndon B．Johnson,The Vantage Point: Perspective of the Presidency, 1963—1969(New York: Popular Library, 1971), p．288.

Barry M．Blechman and Douglas M．Hart, “The Political Utility of Nuclear Weapons: The 1973 Middle East Crisis，”International Security, Vol.7, No.1, 1982, pp.146-147.

时殷弘：《美苏冷战史：机理、特征和意义》，《南开大学学报》2005年第3期，第8—9页。

John Gaddis, “Great Illusion, The Long Peace and the Future of the International System，” in Charles Kegley ed.,The Long Postwar Peace(New York: Harper Collins, 1991), p．34.

Robert Jackson,The Global Covenant Human Conduct in a World of States(New York: Oxford University Press, 2000), p．54.

Bruno Tertrais, “The Demise of Ares: The End of War as We know It，”Washington Quarterly, Vol.35, No.3, 2012, pp.7-22.

戈登·克雷格、亚历山大·乔治：《武力与治国方略——我们时代的外交问题》，时殷弘等译，北京：商务印书馆，2004年，第308页。

事实上，自变量之间存在相应的逻辑关系，只是其叠加作用对于因变量的制约并不显著，这里没有加以细论。

事实上，作为两极体系内的次级施动方，某种意义上也是超级大国的代理方，亦可称为超级代理方。

Alexei Vassiliev,The History of Saudi Arabia(New York: New York University Press, 2004), p．221.

David E. Long,The United States and Saudi Arabia: Ambivalent Allies(Boulder and London: Westview Press, 1985), p．114.

Nadav Safran,Saudi Arabia: The Ceaseless Quest for Security(Cambridge, Massachusetts: The Balknap Press of Harvard University Press, 1988), p．121.

Heather Lehr Wagner,Saudi Arabia(New York: Infobase Publishing, 2009), pp.76-78.

Steven L. Spaegel,The Other Arab-Israeli Conflict: Making America's Middle East Policy from Truman to Reagan(Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1985), pp.132-136.

Adeed Dawisha,Saudi Arabia's Search for Security(London: International Institute for Srategic Studies, 1979), pp.20-21.

Walter Lafeber,Inevitable Revolutions: The United States in Central America(New York: W．W.Norton & Company, 1993), p．238.

Holly Sklar,Washington's War on Nicaragua(Boston, MA: South End Press, 1988), p．7.

Mary B．Vanderlaan,Revolution and Foreign Policy in Nicaragua(Boulder and London: Westview Press, 1986), pp.127-209.

Jimmy Carter,Public Papers of the Presidents: 1977，1978，1979，1980(Washingnton DC: GPO, 1979), pp.1235-1241.

Peter J．Schraeder ed., Intervention in the 1980s:U．S Foreign Policy in the Third World (Boulder and London: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1989), p．31.

Roy Godson,Dirty Tricks or Trump Cards: U．S.Covert Action and Counter-intelligence(New Brunswick: Transaction Publishers, 2001), p．55.

Walter Lafeber,The American Age: United States Foreign Policy at Home and Aboard(New York: W．W.Norton & Company, 1994), p．721.

军事科学院世界军事研究部主编：《战后世界局部战争史》(第二卷)，北京：军事科学出版社，2008年，第562页。

Danuta Paszyn,The Soviet Attitude to Political and Social Change in Central America, 1979—1990: Case-Studies on Nicaragua, EL Salvador and Guatemala(Houndmills: Macmillan, 2000), pp.39-55.

Theodore Sorensen,Kennedy(New York: Harper and Row, 1965), p．578.

William Jackson, “The Soviets and Strategic Arms，”Political Science Quarterly, Vol.94, No.2, 1979, p．247.

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