Scenario analysis中文

In addition, background work on

[...]

the preparation of tool kits, the

[...] implementation ofscenario analysisand improved [...]

approaches to land-use planning was done.

unesdoc.unesco.org

unesdoc.unesco.org

此外，还为编写工具包，开展方案分 析， 和 改善 土地 使用规划的方式做了准备和辅助性的工作。

unesdoc.unesco.org

unesdoc.unesco.org

It was stressed in

[...] particular thatscenario analysisof the World [...]

Water Vision was based on data and reports prepared within

[...]

IHP with the strong contribution of the Russian Federation.

unesdoc.unesco.org

unesdoc.unesco.org

理事会特别强调了“世界水资源展 望”的方案分析是建立在 由国际水文计划提交的数据和报告的基础上的。

unesdoc.unesco.org

unesdoc.unesco.org

The Group recognises these limitations and so complements and refines its

[...] risk analysis through the use of stress andscenario analysis.

glencore.com

glencore.com

本集團意識 到該等局限後，透過採用壓力及情境 分析來 補充 並完善其風險分 析。

glencore.com

glencore.com

On the basis of the

[...] Consultant’sscenario analysis,the CYD would [...]

incur an operating loss under all possible scenarios under

[...]

a public sector delivery model.

legco.gov.hk

legco.gov.hk

顧問公司的財務分析結果顯示， 中心如以公營部門提供服務的模 式運作，在上述所有假設情況下中心都會出現營運虧損。

legco.gov.hk

legco.gov.hk

Learn how to use Risk Attribution to find the sources of portfolio risk, Return Attribution

[...]

to check if you are

[...] being compensated for the risk andScenario analysistools to see how those same positions [...]

may perform under

[...]

a hypothetical market scenario.

hedgespa.com

hedgespa.com

学习如何运用风险分配分析资产组合风险来源，投资回报 分 配检 查风险回报是否得 当 ，情景分析工 具分 析在 一假 设市场情形下相同投资的表现。

hedgespa.com

hedgespa.com

Managers

[...] realized thatscenario analysis,which leads [...]

to development of pre-designed response activities, can help in dealing

[...]

with the aftermath of increasingly frequent natural disasters, pandemics, utility outages, unavailability of data, information and communication means etc.

daccess-ods.un.org

daccess-ods.un.org

管理人员认识到，研究制定事先设定的应急活 动之前的情景分析，可有助于 处理日益频繁发生的自然灾害、流行病、公用事业 [...]

断供、数据信息和通信手段中断等造成的后果。

daccess-ods.un.org

daccess-ods.un.org

Scenario Analysis:TheScenariotab runs a two-dimensional scenario of two input variables (L) based on the selected option type and lattice steps (M) and returnsascenario analysistable (N) of [...]

the resulting option

[...]

values based on the various combinations of inputs.

crystalballservices.com

crystalballservices.com

情景分析标签基于选 定的期权类型和网格步数(M) 对输入变量(L) 运行一个二维的情景分 析，并且返回一个情景分析的表格 (N)，这个表格中基于多个输入变量的组合将产生的期权 价值展示出来。

crystalballservices.com

crystalballservices.com

The scientific community has done much in establishing institutions, in making professional assessment available to the general public, in developing tools for analysis (environmental impact assessment, indicators,

[...]

vulnerability analysis, risk

[...] assessment, hotspotsanalysis, scenario analysisand valuation [...]

techniques), as well as in propagating

[...]

the integrated planning and management of water, land use and energy.

daccess-ods.un.org

daccess-ods.un.org

科学界在建立机构、向一般公众提供专业评估、开发分析工具(环境影响 评估、指标、脆弱性分析、风险评估、热点 分 析、 情形 分析 和估 值技术)以及宣 传水资源、土地利用和能源的综合规划和管理等方面做了许多工作。

daccess-ods.un.org

daccess-ods.un.org

However, the development of the Plan should not lead to

[...]

complacency, and we encourage UNMIT to

[...] pursue rigorousscenario analysisand contingency [...]

planning, including in advance of elections,

[...]

in case conditions for drawdown are not met or there is a change in the security situation on the ground.

daccess-ods.un.org

daccess-ods.un.org

但是，不应因为制定了该计划就沾沾 自喜，我们鼓励联东综合团进行严密 的情景分 析和应 急规 划，包括对选举前没有实现缩编的条件或实地安 [...]

全局势出现变化的情况进行分析并作出规划。

daccess-ods.un.org

daccess-ods.un.org

The output of this framework, in particular management

[...]

information on key operational risk and control

[...] assessments,scenario analysis,internal incidents [...]

and external incidents, is reported

[...]

by the business units and presented to the Group Operational Risk Committee.

prudential.co.uk

prudential.co.uk

根據此框架所得出的結果，尤其是主要營運風險及 監控評估、情景分析、內部事項 及外部事項等方面的管理資料，會由業務單位匯報並向集團營運風險委員會呈報。

prudential.co.uk

prudential.co.uk

Topics covered include: *Basic navigation through the major functions; *Highlight new

[...]

features in the latest version; *Review basic network troubleshooting scenarios;

[...] *Review securityanalysisdetectionscenario.

flukenetworks.com

flukenetworks.com

主题包括：*基本导航到主要功能；*重点介绍最新版本的新功能；*了解基本网络故障排除情 况 ；* 了解 安全 分 析检 测 状况。

cn.flukenetworks.com

cn.flukenetworks.com

The financial

[...] implications of suchascenarioshould be assessed using a sensitivityanalysis.

legco.gov.hk

legco.gov.hk

這種情形的財務影響，應以量變 分析來 評估。

legco.gov.hk

legco.gov.hk

This document contains ananalysisof the educationalscenarioin the region, [...]

a review on how the management of the educational

[...]

systems are contributing to the students learning processes, and also a forecast of costs and options for financing education for 2015.

unesdoc.unesco.org

unesdoc.unesco.org

文件分析了该地区的教育形势，评 估了教育系统的管理如何促进学生的学习过程，还预 测了 2015 年资助教育的经费和办法。

unesdoc.unesco.org

unesdoc.unesco.org

The Buyer's Stamp Duty rolled out last week, for example, relates

[...] to the thirdscenario.Therefore, why [...]

does the Chief Executive totally negate

[...]

the policy of positive non-intervention?

legco.gov.hk

legco.gov.hk

正如上周推出的買家印花稅措施，便屬於上述第 三 種 情 況， 所以 ， 為何行政長官要全盤否定“積極不干預”政策呢？

legco.gov.hk

legco.gov.hk

He enquired about the measures and

[...]

financial means that had been planned to cater

[...] for the worstscenarioso as to prevent [...]

major suspension of electricity supply.

legco.gov.hk

legco.gov.hk

他詢 問當局計劃採取甚麼措施及有何財政資源應付最壞 的情況 ，以 避免電力供應大規模停頓。

legco.gov.hk

legco.gov.hk

Indeed, in the finalanalysis,the reason for today'sscenarioin which polices [...]

are changed frequently and infrastructure

[...]

projects are held back at the expense of job opportunities is that there is another problem which is even more serious, that is, the rigid target stressed by the Government to achieve fiscal balance in 2006-07.

legco.gov.hk

legco.gov.hk

其 實 ， 歸 根 究 柢 造 成 今天的 朝 令 夕 改 ， 既 要 叫 停 基 建 工 程 ， 又 要 犧牲就 業 機 會，我相信 是 [...]

因為另 一 問 題 更 為 嚴 重 ， 便 是政府 強 調在 2006-07 年 度 達 到 財政收

[...]

支 平 衡 的 硬 指 標 ， 其 主 因在於 政 府 政 策 沒 有 通 盤 規劃，使 政 府 的政 策 不斷割 裂 。

legco.gov.hk

legco.gov.hk

While there is little doubt that an individual acceptance by a contracting State or contracting organization cannot have the effect of “permitting” an impermissible reservation or produce any other effect in relation to the reservation or the treaty, the situation is different where all the contracting States and contracting organizations expressly approve a reservation

[...]

that — without this unanimous acceptance —

[...] would be impermissible, which is thescenariocontemplated in guideline 3.3.3.

daccess-ods.un.org

daccess-ods.un.org

一缔约国或一缔约组织单独接受一项保留，并不

[...]

能够产生使一项不允许的保留“得到允许”的效果或对保留或条约产生任何其他

[...] 效果，这一点是不成问题的，但若所有缔约国和缔约组织都明确认可在未得到一 致接受的情况下属于不允许的保留的一项保留 ， 情况 就不 同了，而这正是准则 3.3.3 中设想的情况。

daccess-ods.un.org

daccess-ods.un.org

Hence, apart from thescenarioenvisaged in [...]

guideline 4.3.2, the entry into force of the treaty as between the author of

[...]

the objection and the author of the reservation is in no way dependent on the objection itself, but rather on the establishment of the reservation; the objection plays no role in the establishment of the reservation.

daccess-ods.un.org

daccess-ods.un.org

除了准则 4.3.2 所作的假设，条 约在保留方与该保留的反 对方之间实际生效，完全不取决于反对本身，而是取决于保留的成立；在保留的 [...]

成立上，反对不起任何作用。

daccess-ods.un.org

daccess-ods.un.org

Suchascenarioillustrates both [...]

interpersonal and structural violence directly related to survival, bodily integrity and

[...]

health, as women risk their lives daily for water, which is a basic need.

daccess-ods.un.org

daccess-ods.un.org

这种情况说明了直 接与生 存、身体完整性和健康相关的人与人之间的暴力侵害和结构性的暴力侵害，因为 [...]

妇女每天为水这一基本需求而要冒着生命的风险。

daccess-ods.un.org

daccess-ods.un.org

Five principles should inform the review: (a) local women and national gender experts should be consulted, and their views reflected, in all planning processes; (b) the analysis of needs and priorities should be based on an appreciation of the differential impact of conflict on women and men and boys and girls, and of the potential for prevailing gender relations to affect efforts to rebuild effective and equitable institutions; (c) resource allocations should be based on projections

[...]

of the gender

[...] implications of competing fundingscenarios;(d) gender-related outcome indicators and costed activities should be included in planning frameworks; and (e) sufficient expertise in social and genderanalysisshould be provided throughout [...]

the planning process

[...]

to allow these steps to be implemented effectively and within the stipulated time frames.

daccess-ods.un.org

daccess-ods.un.org

审查工作将以五个原则为指导：(a) 所

[...] 有规划进程都应咨询当地妇女和国家两性平等专家且体现他们的观点；(b) 分析 需求和优先事项时必须认识到冲突对妇女和男子、男孩和女孩产生的影响不同， 还应认识到现存的性别关系可能会影响到重建有效和公平机构的工作；(c) 应根 据竞相争夺资金对两性平等的影响的 预 设 情 况， 分 配资 源；(d) 应将与性别相关 的成果指标和计算成本的活动纳入规划框架；(e) 应该在整个规划过程中提供足 够的社会分析和两性平等分析专业 知识 ，以便在规定的时限内有效执行这些步 骤。

daccess-ods.un.org

daccess-ods.un.org

Management believes that any reasonably foreseeable change in any of the above key assumptions would not

[...]

cause the carrying amount of goodwill to exceed the recoverable amount and therefore

[...] no sensitivityanalysiswas required.

asiasat.com

asiasat.com

管理層相信上述主要假設的任何

[...] 合理可見變動，將不會導致商譽之賬面值超出可收回數額，因此毋須進行敏 感性 分 析。

asiasat.com

asiasat.com

In the Russian Federation, work is being carried out to define the parameters of the

[...]

space debris model (space

[...] debris predictionanalysis)more precisely using compiled experimental data, to forecast man-made pollution of near-Earth space by establishing possible futurescenarios of such pollution [...]

during the period 2025-2030,

[...]

and in the longer term up to 2110, and to compare the results obtained with the corresponding results obtained by foreign models.

daccess-ods.un.org

daccess-ods.un.org

在俄罗斯联邦，正在使用已经汇集的实验数据更加准确地界定空间碎片模 型的参数（空间碎片预测分析），目 的是 通过对 2025-2030 年期间以及直到 2110 年的更长时期内这类污染今后可能发生的演变而对近地空间人 为 污染 情况 作出 预 测，并将所获成果与国外模型所获相应成果加以比较。

daccess-ods.un.org

daccess-ods.un.org

It was suggested that the States

[...]

Parties reflect on how they can enable the

[...] necessary in-depthanalysisand discussion [...]

of the requests in order to ensure that

[...]

high quality requests continue to be the norm.

daccess-ods.un.org

daccess-ods.un.org

会议建议，缔约国应思考如何使各方能够就请求 开展必要的深入分析和讨论，以 确保提出高质量的请求仍然是规范做法。

daccess-ods.un.org

daccess-ods.un.org

Major actions included the following: (a) Goal 7, target 1: trained 286 civil servants in environment and conflict cooperation issues; strengthened productive and sustainable renewable energy technologies in South Africa, Botswana, Zambia and Namibia through policy dialogues; (b) Goal 7 target 2: promoted European Union policy dialogue to protect the Black Sea; (c) Goal 7, target 3:

[...]

achieved a sustainable water ecosystem through

[...] participatoryscenario-building in Italy, [...]

France, Belgium, Estonia and Latvia;

[...]

implemented cleaner production measures and developed a concept for decentralized wastewater treatment from metal finishing industries in India; (d) Goal 8, target 4; developed policies that improved the health and living conditions of India’s unskilled labour force; (e) Goal 8, target 5: improved e-waste technologies to manage e-waste and recycling in India.

daccess-ods.un.org

daccess-ods.un.org

重大活动如下：（a）目标 7，指标 1：培训了 286 名环境和冲突合作问题公务员； 通过政策对话，加强了南非、博茨瓦纳、赞比亚和纳米比亚的生产和可持续再生 能源技术；（b）目标 7，指标

[...]

2：推动欧洲联盟政策对话，以保护黑海；（c）目 标 7，指标

[...] 3：在意大利、法国、比利时、爱沙尼亚和拉脱维亚，通过树立参与 意识，建立了 可持续的水生态系统；在印度，实现了更清洁的生产措施，开发了 [...]

金属表面精整工业废水分散管理概念；（d）目标 8，指标

[...]

4：制订了种种政策， 改善了印度非熟练劳动力的健康和生活条件；（e）目标 8，指标 5：改进了电子 废品技术，以管理印度的电子废品和回收。

daccess-ods.un.org

daccess-ods.un.org

To operationalize its strategy, UNMIS has taken a number of measures in the field, including increased coordination mechanisms among all actors and improved synergies in

[...]

information exchange

[...] and situationalanalysis,to understand the causes of civilian insecurity and develop joint planning, scenariosand contingency [...]

planning.

daccess-ods.un.org

daccess-ods.un.org

为了实施其战略，联苏特派团在实地采取了一些措施，其中包括增加所有行 为体之间的协调机制以及加强信息交流和 形 势 分 析 中 的协 同作 用，以了解造成平 民不安全的原因和制订联合规划、情 况设 想和 应急计划。

daccess-ods.un.org

daccess-ods.un.org

They then analyse the main results of the fish

[...] model, giving a plausiblescenarioin a ten-year horizon of [...]

what can be expected to happen

[...]

under a certain set of assumptions, such as the macroeconomic environment, international trade rules and tariffs, frequency and effects of El Niño phenomena, absence of abnormal fishrelated disease outbreaks, fishery quotas, longer-term productivity trends and the non-appearance of market shocks.

fao.org

fao.org

然后分析了鱼模式主要成果，提出 了十年范围内在特定假设情况下预 期要发生的可 能情形 ，例 如宏观经济环境、国 际贸易规则和关税、厄尔尼诺现象的频率和影响、不发生与不正常鱼有关的病害 [...]

爆发、渔业配额、长期生产力趋势以及非显形市场震动。

fao.org

fao.org

Ideally, in suchascenario,an early (autumn, year one) agreement in principle on the foreseen provisional budget ceiling would be not only be desirable but extremely useful for the work of both the Executive Board and the Director-General respectively, having the additional advantage from the logistical and financial point of view of requiring only a single budgetscenarioand therefore [...]

the draft C/5 document to be prepared.

unesdoc.unesco.org

unesdoc.unesco.org

比较理想的是，在这 种情形下，原则 上所规定的临时预算最高限额方面的早期（第一年秋季）协议对于执行局和 总干事的工作不仅令人满意而且极其有效，同时，从后勤和财政的观点看，具有只需单 一预 算情形的额外好处，因此可以编制 C/5 号文件。

unesdoc.unesco.org

unesdoc.unesco.org

However, thisscenariois dependent [...]

on two factors: the external economic environment, in particular the speed of recovery

[...]

from the current global economic crisis, and the quality of growth in the LDCs and its impact on employment, structural transformation and investment, both public and private.

daccess-ods.un.org

daccess-ods.un.org

然而，这一前景取决于两个 因素：外部经济环境，特别 是从当前的全球经济危机中复苏的速度，以及最不发达国家增长的质量及其对就 [...]

业、结构转型和公共及私人投资的影响。

daccess-ods.un.org

daccess-ods.un.org

However, work remains to be done in setting

[...]

up mitigation strategies; carrying out a

[...] business impactanalysis,together with [...]

the Office of Information and Communications

[...]

Technology, to validate the prioritization of business processes at departmental level, train managers and critical staff to ensure they are able to continue critical business processes, and testing the business continuity plans and ensuring their maintenance (see also paragraphs 42 to 45 of document A/64/7/Add.9 in the present supplement).

daccess-ods.un.org

daccess-ods.un.org

但在制订减少风险战

[...] 略；与信息和通信技术厅共同开展业 务 影 响分 析 以 切实 优先 落实部门业 务流程、培训管理人员和关键工作人员以确保他们能够继续开展关键业 [...]

务流程；以及测试业务连续性计划和确保其继续运作等方面，还有一些 工作要做(另见本补编 A/64/7/Add.9

[...]

号文件，第 42 至 45 段)。

daccess-ods.un.org

daccess-ods.un.org

At its sixty-fourth session, the General Assembly called upon States that had not done so to consider signing and ratifying or acceding to the Convention as a matter of priority, and requested the Secretary-General to continue his efforts to promote and raise awareness of the Convention; took note of the report of the Committee on Migrant Workers on its ninth and tenth sessions; invited the Chair of the Committee to address the General Assembly at its sixty-fifth session; invited the Special Rapporteur on the human rights of migrants to present his report to the Assembly at its sixty-fifth session; and requested the Secretary-General to report to the Assembly at its sixty-fifth session on the

[...]

implementation of the resolution and to include in

[...] that report ananalysisof the ways and [...]

means to promote the human rights of migrants,

[...]

in particular children (resolution 64/166).

daccess-ods.un.org

daccess-ods.un.org

大会第六十四届会议吁请尚未签署和批准或加入《公约》的国家优先考虑 签署和批准或加入《公约》，请秘书长继续努力，提高对《公约》的认识并进

[...]

行宣传；注意到移徙工人问题委员会第九届和第十届会议的报告；邀请委员会 主席在大会第六十五届会议上发言；邀请移徙者人权问题特别报告员向大会第

[...] 六十五届会议提出报告；请秘书长向大会第六十五届会议报告决议的执行情 况，并在报告中分析促进移徙者特 别是儿童人权的方式方法(第 [...]

64/166 号决 议)。

daccess-ods.un.org

daccess-ods.un.org